When the book was published in 1996, both the internet and myself were in our infancies. I was finally made aware of Only The Paranoid Survive by a blogpost written by venture capitalist Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) entitled Peacetime CEO / Wartime CEO. Horowitz (@bhorowitz) describes Grove as a typical "Wartime CEO".
Strategic Inflection Points
Drawing heavily on his experience as a CEO of the Intel Corporation Andy Grove outlines his idea of "strategic inflection points". These are the points in the life of every company when its business changes so profoundly that the whole company is at stake. Usually such changes are brought about by one of Michael Porter's (@MichaelEPorter) classix six forces: Competitors, suppliers, consumers, substitutes, potential competitors and complementors (for those familiar with the five forces, complementors have been added later). When such a forces changes its magnitude by roughly ten times ("10X Force"), you can be sure, you are facing a strategic inflection point.
Recognizing a Strategic Inflection Point
It is not always easy to recognize a strategic inflection point. After all, if everybody recognized them early on and was well prepared business journals would probably face serious issues. Grove argues that the only way to surely recognize a strategic inflection point is through broad and intensive debate. As a board member listen to striking news from your frontline employees and your salesforce, as an employee or middle manager report oddities early on and if your gut feeling says there is something in the dark, listen to it; after all your gut feeling might save your company. Gather data to analyze the situation early on and try to stick to the facts despite the countless emotions involved in every big change.
Navigating a Strategic Inflection Point
Andrew Grove sees navigating a strategic inflection point as a two-stage process:
Stage 1: Experiment: While you may not know the answer, someone in your company might know, or at least someone might be able to find out. Provide room for experimentation and let failures happen at an early stage of a strategic inflection point. Failures are much cheaper now than later. Sometimes you might also want to hedge different strategies or keep watching an emerging technology.
Stage 2: Set the direction: After you have experimented enough to reach a sensible conclusion, go for it with all the conviction you can afford. After a period of 'chaos' it is important to set a clear direction and move towards the end of a strategic transition even if you might not be sure how exactly the company will look afterwards. Grove describes this very imagniatively:
"When I think about what it's like to get through a strategic inflection point, I'm reminded of a classic scene in old western movies in which a bedraggled group of riders is traveling through a hostile landscape. They don't know exactly where they are going; they only know that they can't turn back and must trust that they will eventually reach a place where things are better."This book may be judged 'old' by conventional standards and chapter 9, in which the author discusses whether the internet is a strategic inflection point or just noise is rather funny to read with all we know by now. However, the theory of strategic inflection points is still very up-to-date and important. Only The Paranoid Survive is an insightful, fascinating and quite short read that is definitely worth your time!
Currently, I am reading The Moral Landscape by Sam Harris (@SamHarrisOrg). Follow me on Twitter and share your thoughts!
